Study on Forecast Model of Agricultural Economic Risk in Natural Disasters Environment 

Qiuping Li * 

School of Economics and Management, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi, 445000, China

Abstract: Agricultural economic risk forecast is an important part of agricultural disaster prevention and mi-tigation. A model of agricultural economic risk forecast based on comprehensive risk index is studied, and the index system of agricultural economic risk assessment is established. The evaluation index system was se-lected and constructed based on principal component analysis and four factors of agricultural economic risk, and the evaluation model was established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to classify the four risk components of crops to achieve risk forecast. The study showed that there are large differences in the risk of agricultural natural disasters in the study areas, and the areas with high risk are concentrated in the middle and southern mountainous areas. The lower risk areas are concentrated in most parts of the north and the southern part, which is consistent with the regional environmental characteristics, economic input, agricultural development status and trends.

Keywords: Natural disaster environment; Agricultural economy; Risk forecast model