The Impact of Climate Change on National Vulnerability 

Lei Xiao, Xunhao Huang, Li Zhong

North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, 063210, China

Abstract: Climate change is a global threat to security in the 21st century. Fragile countries are more likely to be affected in all aspects of climate change. Therefore，an accurate model is needed to determine a country’s fragility and simultaneously measure the impact of climate change. First, we ｓｅｌｅｃｔ 17 indicators that affect national vulnerability and establisha model for assessing the degree of national vulnerability based on the VSD framework. Then we use the method of entropy to quantify the influencing factors of vulnerability, divide the vulnerability into five levels more precisely, and get the relationship between national vulnerability and climate change. Then, in the top 10 countries given in FSI, we choose Syria as the research object. According to the establishedmodel, we conclude that climate change is the indirect cause of Syria's vulnerability, especially for rainfall, temperature and CO2 emissions. Finally, In order to better optimize the model, we have given a vulnerability framework of Coupled Human-Environmental System so that the model can work on both small cities and large continents theoretically.

Keywords: Fragile states; Climate change; National vulnerability assessment model based on VSD framework; Sensitivity analysis