Empirical Analysis of Risk Measurement of Science and Technology Companies based on GARCH-KMV Model

Taking anhui province as an example

Hongmei Yang, Yi Zou, Yuhong Zhu, Pan Deng, Ting Lei

School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030, China

Abstract: In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that innovation is the first driving force for development. Technology companies play a vital role in the field of scientific and technological innovation. The long-term development of technology-based companies is inseparable from comprehensive and effective risk management. Since most companies do not have the characteristics of frequent transactions, the accurate measurement of volatility has always been the focus and difficulty of the company's risk management research. In order to explore the credit and risk management of technology-based listed companies in the same industry and industry, this paper selects 12 listed technology companies in Anhui Province, and uses empirical methods to estimate the accuracy of equity value volatility according to the GARCH-KMV hybrid model to improve KMV. The ability of the model to identify risks. In addition, based on the changes in the securities market, this paper establishes a dy-namic volatility measurement model to propose more reasonable risk management recommendations for the securities market.

Keywords: GARCH-KMV model; Technology company; Credit risk; Risk management