A Climatic Network Model of Region Stability

Hongfei Niu, Weiyu Xiong, Weibo Dai

College of Science, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102200, China

Abstract: In recent years, climate issues have caused people's attention. Besides, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change propounds the climate change is important to influence regional instability in 2017. In this paper, we analyze the weights of 12 indexes of a fragile country by using PCA (principal component analysis) and work out our evaluation model. We apply Grey Predicted Model, and we successfully predict the next two time when the flood would occur in September 2020 and in September 2021 in Bangladesh by adding the factor of the disaster index and the precipitation. Finally, We revise our model into a generalized one to suit various regions and bigger continents.

Keywords: The fragility score system; PCA analysis; Predicted model; The generalized model