A Tipping Point of Evaluation on Fragility Effected by Climate Change in China

Huanyu Dong, Hebao Zhang, Wenshang Ji

College of Qianhu, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330031, China

Abstract: Climate changes has made great influences on instability. It is of vital importance to establish an efficient evaluation system, which meet the following requirements. Figure out when and how climate change force a country become more fragile. Based on the principles of mode and average, we identify the tipping point of 15 factors separately. We define the average as tipping point 1 of transforming from stable to vulnerable, mode as tipping point 2 that turning vulnerable to fragile. If the sum of all the representative numbers is over 22, the country is in fragile status. Then we utilize optimized ANN-Markov model to predict the development trend of China, which proves that it will not fall into fragility in future years.

Keywords: ANN Markov chains Fragility