Taxi Development Scale Forecast Two Step Method in Ju County 

Xugang JIN, Beibei WANG, Ziyu ZHAO, Lixiao SU 

School of Traffic & Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, 300374, CHINA 

Abstract: It is important to scientifically and reasonably put forward the number, and improve transportation capability and proportion of actual loading. Based on Ju county as an example, this paper proposes two step method of taxi development scale forecast based on the analysis of the taxi industry including vehicle, operation status, mode of operation, the proportion of actual loading, taxi passenger travel characteristics, etc. The first step is predict taxi scale, with use real ｌｏａｄ proportion control method and the second step is reasonably increase and implement taxi scale based on the actual demand. This paper synthetically takes into account of actual demand and theoretical prediction, and deficiency avoid of traditional taxi forecast model and give the corresponding development measures to provide some reference for the taxi operation and development of small cities in China. 

Keywords: Ju county; Taxi; The scale prediction; Two step method; Development advices